Weekly review US slowdown in gold price surge, global easing bright prospects-t6570

Week review: the United States slowed down the price of gold rose bright Huitong loose global news network February 6th this week (February 1st -2 month 5 day week) gold prices rose nearly 40 US dollars, up 3.7%. When the gold price was the lowest, it rose from $1116.82 an ounce to $1163.01 an ounce. U.S. data weak, Fed officials dovish speech makes the market believes that the pace of the Fed interest rate will slow down, which is the main factor in the rise in gold prices this week. In addition, the world’s major central banks loose measures, physical gold buying, also constitute the support of gold prices. Next week (February 8th -2 month 12 day week) the focus of the market is still to the Fed’s policy outlook, especially Wednesday fed Yellen’s testimony, investors can find more clues to the Fed rate hike outlook. In addition, the real gold buying after the Spring Festival is also concerned by investors. The economic outlook is weakening, making the Fed slow to raise interest rates to support the price of gold. Oil prices and the stock market fall, prompting investors to buy safe asset hedging, gold prices in the Federal Reserve slowed down the main support of interest rate rise. Because the recent price prospects are mainly affected by the pace of U.S. interest rates, higher interest rates make gold less attractive, because of increased holdings of non earning assets the opportunity cost. U.S. data weak, Fed officials released doves speech. In the case of the Fed’s potential to raise interest rates in the future, investors seek to be regarded as a safer asset gold hedge. This week’s data show that U.S. manufacturing activity shows signs of stabilization in January, but the possibility of recovery in the short term is unlikely. US consumer spending was flat in December. The service sector in the United States is slowing, and the U.S. services sector slowed in January to the lowest level in the last two years, indicating a weaker economic growth in the first quarter. Fed officials’ dovish remarks have raised concerns about the market. Fisher, the vice president of the Federal Reserve, suppressed the dollar. Fisher said that the continued volatility of the market may undermine the U.S. economy and inflation. New York Fed President Dudley said that since the December FOMC meeting decided to raise interest rates, the financial situation is more tense, if this situation continued in the March meeting, we will have to consider this. His comments prompted the market to weaken expectations of interest rates. The French bank analyst Robin Bhar believes that the main driving force of the current spot price of gold is the weakness of the dollar and the global economic uncertainty will continue to increase, stimulate the hedging needs of investors. BMO Capital Markets, director of the basic metals and precious metals trading division, said, "the market is focusing on bad news and believes the Fed will no longer raise interest rates. At present, the price of gold is entirely affected by the weakening of the dollar. In addition, the market is under the Federal Reserve may not further increase interest rate expectations to adjust." Spot gold price 4 hours chart week trend, global easing outlook to support the price of gold. This week, apart from the Fed’s slowing interest rate, the eurozone, as well as other economies such as Japan, are sending strong signals. The overall performance of the three economies in the United States, Europe and Europe is weak, and the market is worried about the global economic growth theory

周评:美国放缓金价飙升,全球宽松前景光明   汇通网2月6日讯——本周(2月1日-2月5日当周)黄金价格大幅攀升近40美元,累计上涨3.7%。当周金价最低自1116.82美元 盎司,最高升至1163.01美元 盎司。美国数据疲软、美联储官员鸽派言论使得市场认为美联储加息步伐将会放缓,这是本周金价上涨的主要因素。此外,全球各大央行的宽松举措,实物黄金买盘,也都对金价构成支撑。   下周(2月8日-2月12日当周)市场的焦点仍然在美联储政策前景的走向,尤其是下周三美联储耶伦的证词,投资者可以找到更多美联储加息前景的线索。此外,春节之后的实物黄金买盘也受到投资者关注。   经济前景转弱料使得美联储放缓加息支撑金价。油价和股市下跌促使投资者买入安全资产避险,金价在美联储放缓加息的主要支撑下走高。因为金价近期的前景主要受到美国升息步伐的影响,利率升高使得黄金吸引力减弱,因增加了持有非收益性资产的机会成本。   美国数据疲弱,联储官员放出鸽派言论。在美联储未来升息可能性降低的情况下,投资者寻求在被看作更安全的资产黄金避险。   本周数据显示,美国制造业活动1月呈现出企稳的迹象,但短期内复苏的可能性不大。美国消费者支出12月持平。美国服务业也在放缓,1月美国服务业活动放缓至近两年来低位,表明第一季度开始经济增长更加疲弱。   美联储官员鸽派言论增加了市场的忧虑。美联储副主席费希尔的言论打压美元。费希尔称,市场持续动荡可能损及美国经济和通胀。   纽约联储主席杜德利表示,自从12月美联储会议决定加息以来,金融状况更为紧张,如果这种状况在3月会议时还在持续,我们将不得不对此加以考虑。他的评论促使市场减弱了对升息的预期。   法国兴业银行的分析师Robin Bhar认为,目前现货黄金价格上涨的主要推动力是美元走弱,且全球经济的不确定性也不断增加,刺激了投资者的避险需求。   BMO Capital Markets基本金属和贵金属交易部门董事说,“市场聚焦在坏消息,且相信美联储将不能再加息。目前而言金价走势完全是受到美元走软的影响。另外,市场还正在根据美联储可能不会进一步加息的预期来进行调整。”   现货金价4小时图本周走势   全球宽松前景升温支撑金价。本周除了美联储放缓加息之外,欧元区,以及日本等其它经济体都发出强烈的宽松信号。美中欧三大经济体数据整体表现疲弱,市场担心全球经济成长,期望全球各大央行更多的宽松措施。   中国官方1月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至2012年中来最低,而欧元区制造业增长放缓,美国公布的一系列数据疲弱。   法国兴业银行金属研究部门主管Robin Bhar说,“中国数据令人失望,制造业和服务业数据都很疲弱,加之全球市场继续震荡和未来经济存在不确定性,扶助金价上升。”   Altavest的负责人及联合创始人Michael Armbruster指出,“金价的强劲上涨是因为投资者从正在‘印钱’的全球各大央行转向安全避风港资产。日本的负利率政策以及市场有关人民币将进一步贬值的预期意味着,全球各国还将继续争相贬值本国货币。”   BullionVault的研究主管Adrian Ash指出,“今年截至目前为止黄金价格的上涨走势是从非常低的基数开始的。资产管理经理对黄金市场的情绪跟新年到来以前一样糟糕。其他资产的表现将是至关重要的一件事情,因为对于黄金市场来说,来自资产管理经理的资金流入才是最重要的。全球股市的下跌倾向于给黄金价格带来基本的支撑。”   实物黄金买盘依然旺盛支撑金价。全球最大黄金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量本周持续增加,这反应投资者对黄金的信心增强。分析师表示,即使非农就业报告可能使金价下跌,但金价将不会跌很多,因近几周上市交易基金买需良好。   中国市场对黄金的需求依然旺盛。新加坡黄金交易商GoldSilver Central的常务董事Brian Lan表示,在下周的春节来临之际,来自全球最大黄金消费国–中国的买兴也支撑金价。金价第一季将保持强势,中国当前没有太多替代投资标的,基金开始转向黄金投资。   另有数据显示,中国去年黄金产量下降,消费量却在增加。据中国黄金协会最新数据,2015年中国黄金产量450.05吨,同比下降0.4%,为中国黄金产量首次出现下降,黄金价格低迷是主要原因,但中国仍连续9年成为全球最大黄金生产国;而黄金消费同比增长3.7%,预计未来将继续稳定增长。   印度实物黄金的需求依然旺盛。世界黄金协会预计印度新规定不会抑制黄金购买需求,反而会导致黄金走私网“复兴”。作为世界第二大黄金消费国,印度强制黄金购买者公布永久账号代码(PAN),才能购买20万卢比以上的黄金。印度有12.5亿人口,但仅2.23亿拥有PAN卡。   金价的后市前景依然被市场看好。不少分析人士认为金价目前已经形成一个中期的底部。金属经纪公司Kitco Metals的高级市场分析师Jim Wyckoff称,“对任何对于某种货币走软有着风险敞口的投资者来说,黄金都是一种天然的安全避风港。除了近期的强劲表现以外,我们可能还已经见证了金价的一个重要的长期底部。从技术面来看,4月份交割的黄金期货价格在过去六个月时间里都呈现出起伏的上涨趋势,而最近以来的价格运动表明,市场底部已经到来。”   伦敦黄金市场协会LBMA发布报告显示,市场对今年贵金属价格走势普遍抱有比较看多的预期;分析师们预计,今年黄金全年均价1103美元 盎司,同比将涨1.1%;白银全年均价14.74美元 盎司,同比将涨5.4%。   Sharps Pixley公司CEO Ross Norman表示,“金价上涨的背后当然存在相当高程度的动力,与去年不同的是,现在我们对加息的后顾之忧也降低了。金价上涨很有建设性,明显已促使空头们仓促回补。未来仍然有进一步上涨空间。” 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

« »

Comments closed.